Ukraine and US Fail to Finalize Rare Earth Minerals Agreement
On Friday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met with US President Donald Trump in Washington to sign an agreement granting the US access to Ukraine’s rare earth mineral deposits. However, the meeting took an unexpected turn, ending in a heated exchange between Zelensky, Trump, and Vice President JD Vance. Following Zelensky’s early departure, the White House announced that no agreement had been signed.
Previously, Zelensky had expressed optimism that this “preliminary” agreement could pave the way for further cooperation. However, he confirmed that Ukraine had yet to secure any security guarantees from the US—one of his key demands. Trump, for his part, argued that such a deal would allow American taxpayers to “recoup their money” from aid provided to Ukraine during the war, but insisted that Europe should take primary responsibility for Kyiv’s security.
What Are the Terms of the Agreement?
On Wednesday, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal declared that Kyiv and Washington had completed a draft of the agreement, which was made public on Friday morning. This agreement proposed the establishment of an “investment fund” to aid Ukraine’s rebuilding initiatives.
Shmyhal noted that the fund would be jointly managed by both countries on an “equal footing.” As per the agreement, Ukraine would contribute 50% of its future income from state-controlled mineral resources, oil, and gas to the fund. These funds would then be put toward projects focused on improving Ukraine’s security, stability, and economic development.
The US, for its part, committed to a sustained financial investment aimed at fostering stability and prosperity in Ukraine, in line with US law. The agreement also specified that the US would hold the largest share of the fund allowed by American rules.
Contentions Regarding Mineral Access and Financial Conditions
Tensions between Trump and Zelensky appear to have escalated over the specific terms of the minerals deal. Initially, the US sought a $500 billion claim on Ukraine’s mineral wealth, a demand that Zelensky rejected. Reports indicate that this request was later withdrawn.
According to Tymofiy Mylovanov, a former Ukrainian minister and head of the Kyiv School of Economics, Washington initially proposed an arrangement that undermined Ukraine’s sovereignty and would have led to economic collapse. However, he noted that the US has since revised its approach, now offering a more balanced deal based on co-ownership, without direct claims on past aid. This, he argued, could ultimately benefit Ukraine.
Trump has highlighted the financial perspective, claiming on Tuesday that the US has given Ukraine roughly $300 billion to $350 billion in aid and that a minerals agreement could help recoup this expenditure. Conversely, the Kiel Institute, a German research organization, estimates that the real US support totals $119 billion.
Does the Agreement Include Security Guarantees?
A key issue for Zelensky has been obtaining clear security assurances from the US. On Wednesday, he affirmed that no such assurances had been secured.
“I sought a clause concerning security guarantees for Ukraine as it is vital,” Zelensky remarked.
When asked whether he would abandon the agreement if security assurances were not provided, he responded: “I want to secure a NATO path or something similar. Without security guarantees, there will be no ceasefire, and nothing will function.”
Despite the lack of direct security commitments, the agreement includes language indicating US support for Ukraine’s pursuit of security guarantees to achieve lasting peace.
Zelensky maintained that Ukraine would not finalize the agreement until he and Trump reached an understanding on security assurances and determined how to integrate them into the preliminary deal. Trump, however, downplayed the idea of direct US security guarantees, stating that such responsibilities should now be shouldered by Europe. He added that the presence of American workers in Ukraine would offer “automatic security.”
Zelensky initially proposed the idea of a minerals agreement as a way to offer the US a concrete motivation to maintain its support for Ukraine. Trump has implied that, in return for granting mineral access, Ukraine would ensure the “right to keep fighting,” and that the US would continue providing military gear and ammunition “until an agreement with Russia is achieved.”
The US president has also asserted that Russia is amenable to the presence of European peacekeepers in Ukraine. However, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has rejected this notion.
When Will the Agreement Be Signed?
Trump initially stated that the deal would be signed at Friday’s White House meeting. While Ukrainian Prime Minister Shmyhal confirmed that a final version of the agreement had been prepared, Zelensky’s adviser, Mykhaylo Podolyak, clarified that only a framework agreement was set to be signed.
However, no agreement was signed. Instead, the meeting escalated into a confrontation between Trump and Zelensky in the Oval Office. At one point, an angry Trump accused Zelensky of being insufficiently grateful for US assistance and warned that he was “gambling with World War Three.”
“You need to finalize a deal, or we’re done,” Trump allegedly told Zelensky. “You lack leverage.”
Zelensky countered by asserting that there could be “no compromises” with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Trump later shared on Truth Social, accusing Zelensky of having “disrespected the US in its esteemed Oval Office” and declaring: “He can return when he is prepared for peace.”
Currently, it remains uncertain whether the agreement will be signed or when it might occur.
Ukraine’s Abundance of Minerals
Kyiv estimates that Ukraine possesses about 5% of the world’s “essential raw materials.” This encompasses roughly 19 million metric tons of verified graphite deposits, ranking Ukraine among the top five suppliers globally of this mineral, which is vital for manufacturing electric vehicle batteries.
Moreover, Ukraine boasts substantial quantities of titanium and lithium. The nation also asserts it has considerable reserves of rare earth elements—17 minerals crucial for military applications, wind turbines, and electronic gadgets—although some experts question the precise extent of these reserves.
Further complicating the situation, some of the mineral-abundant regions in Ukraine are currently under Russian control. Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko states that mineral deposits valued at approximately $350 billion are situated in areas occupied by Russia.
Another obstacle to mineral extraction is the widespread presence of unexploded landmines. Experts estimate that around 25% of Ukraine’s landmass is contaminated, particularly in the war-torn eastern regions.
Time poses another issue. Even if the agreement reaches completion, it may take years before the mining and export of these resources deliver concrete economic advantages.
“These resources aren’t stored in a warehouse ready for delivery—they require development,” Mylovanov commented. “US investment could eventually be advantageous for all involved.”
What is Russia’s Response?
Russian President Vladimir Putin has yet to comment on the reported details of the US-Ukraine deal. However, on Monday, he told Russian state television that Moscow is prepared to “offer” mineral resources to American companies for joint ventures, including mining in Russia’s “new territories”—a reference to occupied areas of eastern Ukraine.
Putin downplayed the potential US-Ukraine agreement as inconsequential, asserting that Russia “certainly possesses, I want to stress, far more of these resources than Ukraine.”
“As for the new territories, we are ready to attract foreign partners to develop these regions, which have returned to the Russian Federation,” he added.
Meanwhile, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov suggested on Tuesday that the situation remains fluid: “Whether [Ukraine and the US] will sign this agreement or something else, we’ll see. There have been no official statements on this matter yet.”
